We look ahead to this match in Group C at Euro 2024 in Munich with our Slovenia vs Serbia prediction and preview.
Slovenia vs Serbia Stats: The Key Insights
- Serbia are given a 51.5% chance of winning this game by the Opta supercomputer, compared to 23.0% for Slovenia.
- Six of the previous eight matches between Slovenia and Serbia have ended in a draw, with each side winning one match.
- Slovenia have played more matches at the UEFA European Championship without ever winning than any other nation, drawing three and losing one of their four matches.
Having taken just one point between them from their opening matches at Euro 2024, Slovenia and Serbia meet in Munich in a game that likely represents both sides’ best chance of picking up a win in Group C.
On Matchday 1, Slovenia came from a goal behind to earn an unexpected 1-1 draw against Denmark, a result that gives Matjaz Kek’s side a decent chance of making it to the knockout stage of the competition.
In order to do so, however, they are likely to need to win a European Championship game for the first time in their history. They have only played four games at the finals, but that is enough to hold the record for the most games played in the competition without ever having won.
In a previous meeting with Serbia (then playing as Yugoslavia) at Euro 2000, however, Slovenia did come close to a first win. Paired in a group then, too, Slovenia went into a 3-0 lead, only to concede three goals in six second-half minutes and have to settle for a 3-3 draw. It is the only time in European Championship history a team has failed to win a match in which they led by three goals.
They may be confident of picking up that first win here given their recent form, even if the Opta supercomputer doesn’t fancy their chances, giving them just a 24.3% chance of winning. They come into this game on an impressive run, having lost just two of their last 22 matches (W13 D7), going down 2-0 against Finland and 2-1 against Denmark.
Serbia, meanwhile, have more ground to make up in Group C having lost their opening game 1-0 to England in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday night. They put up a fight and made the Three Lions work hard for the points, but ultimately struggled to create much of note and couldn’t find a way past Gareth Southgate’s men.
They only allowed England five shots, but they also only managed six themselves, with their chances worth just 0.18 xG. With 11 shots in total, Serbia versus England produced fewer shots than any other match on record (since 1980) in the European Championship.
Serbia have far more European Championship pedigree than Slovenia, but their recent record leaves a lot to be desired. Including games as Yugoslavia, they won two of their first three matches at the Euros (L1), reaching the final in both 1960 and 1968. However, since then they’ve won just one and lost nine of their 12 matches in the competition.
This team does have attacking quality to hurt any opponent, including striker Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has scored a goal in each of his two previous matches against Slovenia. Only against Lithuania (2018-2019), Luxembourg (2019-2021) and Portugal (2019-2021) has he ever scored in three consecutive international appearances.
They will have to make sure frustration doesn’t get the better of them here. In their opening game of Euro 2024 against England, Serbia committed 19 fouls, their highest tally in a competitive international since October 2019 (19 vs Lithuania in a Euro 2020 qualifier).
Slovenia vs Serbia Head-to-Head
Slovenia have only played four matches at the European Championship in their history, but as mentioned, one of them was against FR Yugoslavia – a 3-3 draw at Euro 2000 in which Slovenia three away a 3-0 lead.
That draw was one of six stalemates between the teams in their last eight meetings. Each side has one win in that time, too, although Serbia’s sole win was a 4-1 triumph in Belgrade just two years ago.
Slovenia vs Serbia Prediction
Serbia are the favourites to win this match, coming out on top in 51.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Slovenia are left with a 48.5% chance of taking something from the game, though they only came out on top 23.0% of the time.
There is still plenty to play for in Group C overall, with Serbia still being given a 60.1% chance of making it to the last 16, while Slovenia are handed a 38.2% chance despite having a point more.
Slovenia vs Serbia Squads
Slovenia
Igor Vekic, Jan Oblak, Vid Belec, David Brekalo, Erik Janza, Jaka Bijol, Jure Balkovec, Miha Blazic, Petar Stojanovic, Vanja Drkusic, Zan Karnicnik, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Adrian Zeljkovic, Benjamin Verbic, Jasmin Kurtic, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Josip Ilicic, Sandi Lovric, Timi Max Elsnik, Tomi Horvat, Andraz Sporar, Benjamin Sesko, Jan Mlakar, Nino Zugelj, Zan Celar, Zan Vipotnik.
Head coach: Matjaž Kek
Serbia
Djordje Petrovic, Predrag Rajkovic, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, Filip Mladenovic, Milos Veljkovic, Nemanja Stojic, Nikola Milenkovic, Srdjan Babic, Strahinja Pavlovic, Uros Spajic, Filip Kostic, Ivan Ilic, Lazar Samardzic, Mijat Gacinovic, Nemanja Gudelj, Nemanja Maksimovic, Sasa Lukic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Srdjan Mijailovic, Veljko Birmancevic, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Andrija Zivkovic, Dusan Tadic, Dusan Vlahovic, Luka Jovic, Petar Ratkov.
Head coach: Dragan Stojković
Slovenia vs Serbia Predicted Lineups
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