We look ahead to this Euro 2024 Group C game with our Slovenia vs Denmark prediction and preview.
Slovenia vs Denmark Stats: The Key Insights
- Denmark are predicted to win this match according to the Opta supercomputer, doing so in 53.7% of pre-match simulations.
- Slovenia have never beaten Denmark in their six previous meetings in all competitions, losing on five occasions.
- Denmark’s 33 matches at the Euros have produced an average of 2.79 goals – the highest rate among the 12 teams to have played more than 20 games in the competition.
Denmark head into Euro 2024 hoping to cause another upset. Winners in 1992 and semi-finalists at Euro 2020, they will be aiming to go one better than they did three years ago, when they were beaten by England in extra-time in their semi-final at Wembley.
First, though, they’ll need to navigate their way out of a potentially tricky group. The Opta supercomputer makes them second favourites behind England to progress, giving the Danes a 69.2% chance of doing so, but fellow Group C participants Serbia and Slovenia will be no pushovers.
On Sunday in Stuttgart, Denmark and Slovenia face off having finished level on points in the same qualifying group for the tournament. In fact, the sides ended Euro 2024 qualifying with identical records, winning seven, drawing one and losing two of their 10 games. Denmark topped the group with a superior head-to-head record.
Denmark have far more pedigree in this competition, with this the 10th European Championship tournament they will have played in. This will be only Slovenia’s second Euros, after they played at Euro 2000. Their wait of 24 years to play in the competition again represents the second-longest gap between tournaments for any team after Hungary (44 years).
They won’t be heading to Germany simply to make up the numbers, though. They have picked up some positive results in recent times that hint at their quality, including a draw against Denmark in qualifying and a 2-0 friendly win over Portugal in March.
Slovenia don’t have a squad full of household names, but Benjamin Sesko‘s will stand out to many observers. The 6-foot-5 forward had a breakout season with RB Leipzig, scoring 14 goals in the Bundesliga, while he also scored five goals and assisted two more in nine Euro 2024 qualifying appearances – the most goal involvements of any Slovenian player. He has been heavily linked with a move to the Premier League, although that won’t be happening this summer after he signed a new contract this week.
At the other end of the pitch, Manchester United’s Rasmus Højlund will carry much of the Danish threat. All seven of his international goals were scored in Denmark’s Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, including a hat-trick against Finland. He was – unsurprisingly – Denmark’s top scorer in qualifying, while he also had the most shots (23), shots on target (13) and highest xG (5.2) of any Danish player.
That is far from the extent of Denmark’s attacking threat, though. Kasper Dolberg and Mikkel Damsgaard were two of their heroes at Euro 2020, while Pierre-Emile Højbjerg plays a slightly more attacking role than we are used to seeing him play at club level, and scored in each of Denmark’s three warm-up friendlies. Kasper Hjulmand’s side are one of our selections as a potential dark horse for the tournament.
Slovenia vs Denmark Head-to-Head
These sides couldn’t have met in competitive games any more recently, having faced off twice in Euro 2024 qualifying. After a 1-1 draw in Slovenia in June 2023, Denmark were victorious in the return game on home soil in November, winning 2-1 thanks to goals from Joakim Mæhle and Thomas Delaney.
Those results extended Denmark’s unbeaten record against Slovenia. They have won five and drawn one of their six meetings, though Slovenia may take heart from the fact that sole draw came so recently.
Slovenia vs Denmark Prediction
Denmark are favourites to win this match, triumphing in 53.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
That does mean, however, that Slovenia are given just over a 46% chance of taking something from the game. They won 20.6% of the supercomputer’s simulations and drew 25.7%.
Slovenia vs Denmark Squads
Slovenia
Igor Vekic, Jan Oblak, Vid Belec, David Brekalo, Erik Janza, Jaka Bijol, Jure Balkovec, Miha Blazic, Petar Stojanovic, Vanja Drkusic, Zan Karnicnik, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Adrian Zeljkovic, Benjamin Verbic, Jasmin Kurtic, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Josip Ilicic, Sandi Lovric, Timi Max Elsnik, Tomi Horvat, Andraz Sporar, Benjamin Sesko, Jan Mlakar, Nino Zugelj, Zan Celar, Zan Vipotnik.
Head coach: Matjaž Kek
Denmark
Frederik Rønnow, Kasper Schmeichel, Mads Hermansen, Alexander Bah, Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, Joachim Andersen, Joakim Mæhle, Rasmus Kristensen, Simon Kjær, Victor Kristiansen, Zanka, Christian Eriksen, Christian Nørgaard, Mathias Jensen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Morten Hjulmand, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Thomas Delaney, Anders Dreyer, Andreas Skov Olsen, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Jonas Wind, Kasper Dolberg, Rasmus Højlund, Yussuf Poulsen.
Head coach: Kasper Hjulmand
Slovenia vs Denmark Predicted Lineups
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