Ahead of a tantalising final round in Group E at Euro 2024, we analyse one of the encounters with our Slovakia vs Romania prediction and preview.
Slovakia vs Romania Stats: The Key Insights
- Given a draw suits both sides, the Opta supercomputer gives that as its most probable result (40.4%).
- Romania are looking to progress from the group stage of the European Championship for just the second time in their sixth appearance at the finals, after doing so in 2000 under Emerich Jenei.
- Slovakia are looking to reach the knockout stages of a third major tournament, along with the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2016.
Here’s what we know about Group E: nothing.
After the first two matchdays of Euro 2024, every team is level three points. Only three goals separate Romania in first and Ukraine in fourth.
In fact, this is the first time in European Championship history that all four teams in a specific group are level on points going into the final matchday.
While we won’t dive into the permutations for each and every team – we’ve done that in the article below – both teams know that they will automatically qualify for the last 16 with a win here.
Slovakia will finish third if they draw, which will almost certainly be enough to go through given they would be on four points.
It bodes well, having lost 2-1 against Ukraine last time out, that Slovakia haven’t lost consecutive games since September 2022. In fact, that defeat to Ukraine was just their fourth defeat in their last 19 games in all competitions.
They do, however, need to learn from their mistakes on Matchday 2.
As the below match momentum graphic shows, Slovakia started well against Ukraine and scored a fairly early goal. Overall, they had five shots on target, their most ever in a major tournament match.
However, all five of those came in the first half, with Francesco Calzona’s side managing just one shot on target after going 1-0 ahead in the game. They were too eager to sit on their lead, and Ukraine eventually made them pay. So, despite a draw being enough, Slovakia’s recent failed attempt to hold on to what they had might put them off trying to do so again.
Romania know they will guarantee their place in the top two by avoiding defeat to Slovakia, which again brings the draw into play. That suggests a possibility of them approaching this game by leaning on their defence, which conceded just five goals in 10 qualifying games.
They are quite used to playing without the ball, as well. Overall in the tournament, they have completed the fewest passes so far, while only Albania (33.0%) and Slovenia (36.0%) average less possession than Romania’s 37.0%.
Having said that, it’s worth pointing out they’ve still maintained attacking intent since scoring their opener against Ukraine on MD 1.
Dennis Man has been a standout for them, grabbing two assists against Ukraine. Man has been a great presence on the right flank, and has started five open-play sequences that have ended in a shot at Euro 2024. Only Toni Kroos and Joshua Kimmich (both 6) have done so more across the opening two matchdays. Two of these ended in a goal for Romania, a joint-high in the opening two games of this year’s finals.
Slovakia vs Romania Head-to-Head
There’s not a lot of recent history to analyse between these two sides. This will be the first competitive meeting between them in the 21st century, with each of the previous four coming in friendlies. Their most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw in August 2013.
Since the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, Slovakia have not managed to beat Romania in eight encounters (D4 L4).
Slovakia vs Romania Prediction
Given a draw suits both sides, the Opta supercomputer gives that as its most probable result (40.4%). Slovakia win the tie in 36.9% of the sims, while Romania emerge with the win in 22.7% of pre-match predictions.
Slovakia vs Romania Squads
Slovakia
Henrich Ravas, Marek Rodák, Martin Dúbravka, Adam Obert, Dávid Hancko, Denis Vavro, Milan Skriniar, Norbert Gyömbér, Peter Pekarík, Sebastián Kósa, Vernon De Marco, Juraj Kucka, László Bénes, Matús Bero, Ondrej Duda, Patrik Hrosovsky, Stanislav Lobotka, Tomás Rigo, Tomás Suslov, Dávid Duris, David Strelec, Ivan Schranz, Leo Sauer, Lubomír Tupta, Lukás Haraslín, Róbert Bozeník.
Head coach: Francesco Calzona
Romania
Florin Nita, Horatiu Moldovan, Stefan Târnovanu, Adrian Rus, Andrei Burca, Andrei Ratiu, Bogdan Racovitan, Ionut Nedelcearu, Nicusor Bancu, Radu Dragusin, Vasile Mogos, Adrian Sut, Alexandru Cicâldau, Darius Olaru, Deian Sorescu, Dennis Man, Florinel Coman, Ianis Hagi, Marius Marin, Nicolae Stanciu, Razvan Marin, Valentin Mihaila, Daniel Bîrligea, Denis Alibec, Denis Dragus, George Puscas.
Head coach: Edward Iordănescu
Slovakia vs Romania Predicted Lineups
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