We look ahead to Tuesday’s Euro 2024 last-16 clash in Munich with our Romania vs Netherlands prediction and preview.
Romania vs Netherlands Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes the Netherlands favourites in this one, with the Dutch victorious inside 90 minutes in 63.0% of its pre-match simulations.
- This will be Romania’s first knockout-stage match at a major tournament since Euro 2000.
- The Netherlands are looking to avoid becoming only the second nation to lose four consecutive knockout matches in the tournament’s history, after Yugoslavia from 1968 to 2000.
While it might not be a surprise to see Romania and the Netherlands facing each other in the last 16, it perhaps is to see them in this fixture after the former came top of their group and the latter finished third in theirs.
That’s what happened, though, with Romania topping Group E on just four points ahead of Belgium, while the Netherlands came third in Group D on the same number of points, below Austria and France.
This is the first time Romania have reached the knockout stage of a major tournament (World Cup/Euros) since Euro 2000, when they were eliminated by Italy at the quarter-final stage. The Tricolorii have only progressed from one knockout tie in major competitions in their history, beating Argentina 3-2 in the 1994 World Cup last 16.
The Netherlands have lost each of their last three knockout-stage matches at the UEFA European Championship, beaten by Portugal in the 2004 semi-finals, Russia in the 2008 quarter-finals, and Czech Republic in the last 16 of Euro 2020. They could become only the second nation to lose four consecutive knockout matches in the tournament’s history, after Yugoslavia from 1968 to 2000.
It was a tricky group stage for the Dutch, coming from behind to beat Poland 2-1, before a 0-0 draw with France was followed by a chaotic 3-2 defeat to Austria. They led for just 12 minutes and 27 seconds across their three matches, the fewest of any side to qualify for the knockout stage; only the eliminated Czech Republic (7:20), Hungary (2:01) and Serbia (0:00) were ahead for less time among all teams in the group stage.
Despite an impressive 3-0 win over Ukraine in their opening game, and finishing top of their group, it has not been an easy journey to this stage for Romania either. They were beaten 2-0 by Belgium before a 1-1 draw against Slovakia as they won a historic Euros group, the first ever to see all four teams finish level on points (four each).
Only Georgia (71) faced more shots among sides to qualify for the knockout rounds than Romania (46). However, the average xG per shot faced by Edward Iordănescu’s side was just 0.07, above only England (0.04) and Belgium (0.06) in the group stage, meaning the average quality of the shots they faced was the third-lowest of any team.
Cody Gakpo has been the main threat for Ronald Koeman’s men, scoring two of the Netherlands’ four goals in the group stage. The Liverpool forward could become the sixth Dutchman to score three or more goals in a single edition of the finals, after Marco van Basten (five in 1988), Dennis Bergkamp (three in 1992), Patrick Kluivert (five in 2000), Ruud van Nistelrooy (four in 2004) and Georginio Wijnaldum (three at Euro 2020).
Memphis Depay impressed on Matchday 3 against Austria, however, leading the line well after there had been calls for him to be dropped. Only Denmark‘s Rasmus Højlund (129) applied more pressures in the final third than him (108) in the group stage, with Depay recording at least 66 more than any other Dutch player, ahead of Gakpo as the next closest with 42.
Razvan Marin has scored two of Romania’s four goals, including an emphatic penalty in the draw with Slovakia. The only players to score more in a single edition of a major tournament for the country are Florin Raducioiu (four at the 1994 World Cup) and Gheorghe Hagi (three, also at the 1994 World Cup).
Romania vs Netherlands Head-to-Head
This will be only the second major tournament meeting between Romania and the Netherlands, with the Oranje winning 2-0 in the group stage of Euro 2008.
Romania have only beaten the Netherlands once in 14 games in all competitions (D3 L10), losing their last four in a row since a 1-0 win in European Championship qualifying in October 2007. They have only scored three goals in those 14 encounters, while conceding 29.
Their last meeting was a friendly in Bucharest in 2017, which the Dutch won 3-0 thanks to goals from Depay, Ryan Babel and Luuk de Jong.
Romania vs Netherlands Prediction
Despite this being a team who finished first against another who finished third, it is the third-placed side – the Netherlands – who are favourites for this clash. The Opta supercomputer gives Koeman’s side a 63.0% chance of winning in 90 minutes.
Romania win in normal time in 15.3% of simulations, while the game goes to extra-time in the remaining 21.3%. The Netherlands make it through the tie and reach the quarter-finals in 74.0% of sims, while Romania do so in 26.0%.
Romania vs Netherlands Squads
Romania
Florin Nita, Horatiu Moldovan, Stefan Târnovanu, Adrian Rus, Andrei Burca, Andrei Ratiu, Bogdan Racovitan, Ionut Nedelcearu, Nicusor Bancu, Radu Dragusin, Vasile Mogos, Adrian Sut, Alexandru Cicâldau, Darius Olaru, Deian Sorescu, Dennis Man, Florinel Coman, Ianis Hagi, Marius Marin, Nicolae Stanciu, Razvan Marin, Valentin Mihaila, Daniel Bîrligea, Denis Alibec, Denis Dragus, George Puscas.
Head coach: Edward Iordănescu
Netherlands
Bart Verbruggen, Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Daley Blind, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Ian Maatsen, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, Joshua Zirkzee, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Wout Weghorst.
Head coach: Ronald Koeman
Romania vs Netherlands Predicted Lineups
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