We look ahead to Friday’s huge Euro 2024 clash in Leipzig with our Netherlands vs France prediction and preview.
Netherlands vs France Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer has France as favourites to make it two wins from two games at Euro 2024, giving them a 42.1% chance of beating the Netherlands.
- Kylian Mbappé is doubtful for the game with a broken nose. He has scored more goals against the Netherlands (six) than he has versus any other nation.
- This will be the fourth Euros meeting between the teams. France triumphed on penalties in the 1996 quarter-finals, with the Netherlands winning two subsequent group-stage matches (3-2 in 2000 and 4-1 in 2008).
Both the Netherlands and France made winning, if not entirely convincing, starts at Euro 2024. On Friday, they face off in a heavyweight clash that could go some way to deciding who tops Group D.
Ronald Koeman’s Oranje had Cody Gakpo and Wout Weghorst to thank as they fought back to beat Poland 2-1 in their opening match, and they will hope the potential absence of Kylian Mbappé gives them the upper hand in Leipzig.
Mbappé’s availability is uncertain after he suffered a broken nose during Les Bleus’ nervy 1-0 victory over Austria, with the forward set to be fitted with a protective mask ahead of a potential return. On Wednesday, the president of the France Football Federation, Philippe Diallo, said it was “too soon to know” if he will play again at this tournament.
The Netherlands will certainly be breathing a sigh of relief if he is out, having seen Mbappé score six times in five career matches against them, including his first senior international goal in August 2017. Against no other nation has Real Madrid’s newest Galactico netted more often.
However, Mbappé did attempt four shots without scoring against Austria, taking his total shots with a goal at the European Championship to 18, the most of any Frenchman since 1980.
Mbappé started centrally against Austria but often drifted out to the left flank, with Ousmane Dembélé stationed wide on the right. Didier Deschamps has a variety of attacking options available to him, with Randal Kolo Muani capable of playing a similar role, while Olivier Giroud could provide more of a traditional focal point.
Giroud’s 57 international goals put him top of France’s all-time scoring charts, six clear of Thierry Henry. Just eight of those have come at major tournaments (one at the 2014 World Cup, three at Euro 2016, four at the 2022 World Cup), but the former Arsenal and Chelsea man has long been a crucial foil for his more mobile teammates.
France have won 71.9% of their games with Giroud in the starting lineup under Deschamps (64/89), compared to 57.3% without him (43/75).
The 37-year-old, who has 16 headed goals for his country, will also have been licking his lips at the sight of the Netherlands’ set-piece defending against Poland, as Adam Buksa took advantage of some lax marking to head home unopposed from a corner.
The last three goals conceded by Koeman’s team have now come from corners.
The Oranje looked like they could be on the wrong end of the tournament’s first upset in their opener, only for Gakpo and Weghorst to fire them to a 2-1 victory.
Weghorst’s winner came with his first touch after coming on as an 81st-minute substitute and was his fourth goal at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros). Three of those strikes have come as a substitute, the most goals any Dutch player has scored off the bench at major tournaments.
Standing at 6-foot-6 and still on Burnley’s books after loan spells with Besiktas, Manchester United and Hoffenheim, Weghorst may not be the personification of Johan Cruyff’s ‘total football’ ideals, but he has a knack for being in the right place at the right time for his nation.
He also has seven goals in his last 11 international appearances overall, tying Gakpo and Calvin Stengs as the Netherlands’ leading scorers in Euro 2024 qualifying with three. He ranked eighth among all players for touches in the opposition box during qualifying (47), with six of those to beat him having played more than his 517 minutes.
Memphis Depay started up front against Poland and flattered to deceive, failing to hit the target with any of his four shots. While he is likely to keep his place in Koeman’s lineup on Friday, expect Weghorst to be introduced earlier if Depay produces a similar display.
France boss Deschamps took some time to settle on Arsenal’s William Saliba as the centre-back partner for Dayot Upamecano, and the France duo may need to be prepared for an aerial bombardment in the latter stages of Friday’s game. It may not be pretty, and it may not be typically Dutch, but it could be effective.
Netherlands vs France Head-to-Head
This will be the fourth time these teams have faced off at the Euros. France triumphed on penalties in the 1996 quarter-finals, but the Netherlands have since won two group-stage encounters – 3-2 in 2000 and 4-1 in 2008.
France have, however, won seven of their last eight matches against the Oranje in all competitions, the exception being a 2-0 defeat in the UEFA Nations League in November 2018.
If history is anything to go by, we should expect to see a winner. Only four of the previous 30 matches between the teams have ended in a draw, with France posting 15 victories to the Netherlands’ 11.
Netherlands vs France Prediction
Despite the question marks over Mbappé’s availability, France are favourites to make it two wins from two games. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 42.1% chance of victory to the Netherlands’ 30.4%, with 27.5% of simulations finishing level.
France are now third favourites to win Euro 2024 according to the Opta predictions (18.1%), behind Germany (19.0%) and England (18.4%). The Netherlands are sixth favourites at 6.4%.
Excluding penalty shootouts, the Netherlands have only lost one of their last 17 major tournament matches (World Cup/Euros), going down 2-0 to Czech Republic at Euro 2020 (12 wins, four draws).
They lost four successive games before this run began – all three group-stage matches at Euro 2012 and the 2010 World Cup final versus Spain.
France, meanwhile, could win their opening two games at a European Championship for the fourth time. On each of the previous occasions on which they accomplished that feat, they went on to reach the final (1984, 2000 and 2016).
Netherlands vs France Squads
Netherlands
Bart Verbruggen, Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Daley Blind, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Ian Maatsen, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, Joshua Zirkzee, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Wout Weghorst.
Head coach: Ronald Koeman
France
Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
Netherlands vs France Predicted Lineups
Our football newsletter ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ is going all in on Euro 2024 this summer, so sign up to receive exclusive content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.