We look ahead to the final Group D meeting at Euro 2024 with our Netherlands vs Austria prediction and preview for Tuesday’s clash in Berlin.
Netherlands vs Austria Stats: The Key Insights
- The Netherlands are the favourites for this one against Austria, winning 46.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Austria have lost their last seven matches against the Netherlands, their longest current run of defeats against a single opponent.
- The Netherlands are aiming to reach the knockout stages at the European Championship for the eighth time in their last nine tournament appearances.
The Netherlands and Austria will both be hoping to secure a top-two finish in Group D when they meet for Tuesday’s Euro 2024 clash in Berlin.
Ronald Koeman’s side need to simply avoid defeat on Tuesday to confirm a place in the top two, having already sealed knockout-stage progression for the eighth time in their last nine tournament appearances. The Oranje only failed to qualify in 2012 under Bert van Marwijk during this run.
The Netherlands would also secure top spot in their pool by matching France’s result against Poland, with the Dutch sitting above Didier Deschamps’ men on goals scored heading into Matchday 3.
That commanding position for Koeman’s team comes after a goalless draw with France on Friday, though there was still frustration as Xavi Simons had a second-half strike ruled out for a contentious VAR decision.
Denzel Dumfries was adjudged to have interfered with play next to French goalkeeper Mike Maignan from an offside position as Simons hammered home what would have likely been the winning goal in Leipzig.
Without Kylian Mbappé, France struggled in front of goal as Antoine Griezmann missed a pair of glorious chances, leaving it all to play for heading into the decisive day of Group D action.
Koeman will look to captain Virgil van Dijk here once more, with the defender making eight clearances against France. That was the most by a Netherlands player in a group-stage game at the European Championship since 2008 versus Romania (13 by John Heitinga and nine by Wilfred Bouma).
Tijjani Reijnders also impressed in midfield by completing more line-breaking passes than any other Netherlands player (13), while he also had the highest pass completion rate under pressure of any outfield player to start the match in Leipzig (97% – 30/31).
Koeman did not issue any injury scares after the France stalemate, with Ajax forward Brian Brobbey returning to the bench and Jeremie Frimpong replacing Joey Veerman in the Netherlands’ only change from their 2-1 win over Poland on MD 1.
Yet Koeman will have taken note of Austria’s resounding 3-1 win over Poland on Friday that lifted Ralf Rangnick’s side onto three points, just one behind the Netherlands and France.
Krzysztof Piatek levelled after Gernot Trauner’s ninth-minute opener in Berlin before Christoph Baumgartner and Marko Arnautovic scored in the second half to secure all three points for Austria.
Rangnick’s side will now be looking to win back-to-back games at a single major tournament (World Cup/Euros) for the first time since the 1982 World Cup (1-0 vs Chile, 2-0 vs Algeria).
A victory here would also seal knockout-stage progression for the second consecutive edition (reached the round of 16 at Euro 2020), after failing to progress from the group stage in their first two appearances in the competition in 2008 and 2016.
A point apiece should still be enough for Austria to progress as one of the four best third-place finishers at this tournament, and that may be Rangnick’s best hope considering the Netherlands’ group-stage form.
Koeman’s men haven’t lost any of their group-stage matches at major tournaments since the start of the 2014 World Cup, winning nine of their 11 such matches (D2). Their draw with France last time out was the first time the Oranje have not scored during that period.
Netherlands vs Austria Head-to-Head
Winning on Friday appears to be an improbable task for Austria, who have lost their last seven matches against the Netherlands – their longest current run of defeats against a single opponent.
Austria’s last victory dates back to May 1990 in a Vienna friendly (3-2), and their fortune against the Netherlands in competitive action is hardly reassuring as well.
The Netherlands have won their two previous major tournament encounters with Austria, winning 5-1 at the 1978 FIFA World Cup and 2-0 at Euro 2020.
Memphis Depay and Dumfries scored in that latter success as the Dutch coasted to a routine victory in Amsterdam.
Netherlands vs Austria Prediction
The Netherlands are backed by the Opta supercomputer for victory in Berlin, winning a convincing 46.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations for Tuesday’s meeting.
Austria were victorious in 25.8% of the same data-led sims, while the draw – which will likely still be enough for Rangnick’s men – was forecast in 28.1%.
Going deeper into Opta’s tournament predictions, the Netherlands have a 63.2% chance of making the last eight, while Austria also boast an impressive 41.6% likelihood of doing the same.
Netherlands vs Austria Squads
Netherlands
Bart Verbruggen, Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Daley Blind, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Ian Maatsen, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, Joshua Zirkzee, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Wout Weghorst.
Head coach: Ronald Koeman
Austria
Heinz Lindner, Niklas Hedl, Patrick Pentz, Flavius Daniliuc, Gernot Trauner, Kevin Danso, Leopold Querfeld, Max Wöber, Philipp Lienhart, Phillipp Mwene, Stefan Posch, Alexander Prass, Christoph Baumgartner, Florian Grillitsch, Florian Kainz, Konrad Laimer, Marcel Sabitzer, Marco Grüll, Matthias Seidl, Nicolas Seiwald, Patrick Wimmer, Romano Schmid, Andreas Weimann, Marko Arnautovic, Maximilian Entrup, Michael Gregoritsch.
Head coach: Ralf Rangnick
Netherlands vs Austria Predicted Lineups
Our football newsletter ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ is going all in on Euro 2024 this summer, so sign up to receive exclusive content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.