We look ahead to the Euro 2024 opening game in Munich with our Germany vs Scotland prediction and preview.
Germany vs Scotland Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Euro 2024 hosts Germany the big favourites to beat Scotland, with a 70.4% win probability.
- Scotland have won only two of their nine previous matches at the European Championship.
- Germany have defeated Scotland in their two past encounters at major tournaments.
Euro 2024 kicks off on Friday as Germany take on Scotland in Munich, and a flying start is on the agenda for Julian Nagelsmann’s team.
Scotland, making their fourth appearance at the European Championship, would probably have been hoping for an easier start than going up against the hosts in the tournament’s opening match.
Steve Clarke’s team qualified in second place behind Spain, pipping Erling Haaland’s Norway to securing a Euro 2024 ticket.
Germany, meanwhile, have picked up form under Nagelsmann since he was appointed as Hansi Flick’s successor, and the former Bayern Munich coach has plenty of talent at his disposal, even if the Euro 2024 hosts are not considered to be among the biggest favourites.
Mats Hummels, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka are three big-name absentees from Germany’s squad, while Bayern youngster Aleksandar Pavlovic had to withdraw on Wednesday due to injury.
But in Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Leroy Sané, Kai Havertz and Borussia Dortmund’s Niclas Füllkrug, Germany have an exciting attack, while Toni Kroos will anchor the midfield before he heads off into retirement.
This is Nagelsmann’s first major tournament as head coach. Jupp Derwall was the last Germany boss to win a major tournament with them at the first attempt (Euro 1980).
Germany have gone unbeaten in their last four matches. That being said, they were not particularly impressive in their warm-up matches.
Following a 0-0 draw with Ukraine, Germany beat Greece 2-1 last time out, though they mustered a disappointing 0.88 expected goals (xG), in contrast to their opponents’ 2.14.
The scoreline is the statistic that matters at tournaments, with Havertz grabbing an equaliser midway through the second half before Pascal Groß secured a late victory.
This is the fourth time that Germany are sole hosts of a major international tournament, reaching the final four in each of the previous three editions: champions at the 1974 World Cup, semi-finalists at Euro 1988 and third place at the 2006 World Cup.
Overall, Germany are taking part in their 14th Euros, more than any other team. They have won the European Championship trophy three times, the joint-most alongside Spain.
Nagelsmann has been happy to lean on youth for his squad selection, and in Wirtz and Musiala, he has two of the most exciting youngsters in world football at his disposal.
Wirtz scored 11 goals and added 11 assists during Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten Bundesliga title-winning campaign to claim Player of the Season honours in Germany’s top tier.
Musiala, meanwhile, scored 10 goals from an xG of 7.9 in the league.
Behind them, the returning Kroos brings plenty of experience alongside Ilkay Gündogan, who created the second-most chances of any player in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions in 2023-24, with 132.
Havertz is likely to lead the line with support from Füllkrug, but Thomas Müller is another weapon in Germany’s arsenal. He has scored 10 goals in 19 appearances at the World Cup (36 shots), but he has never scored in 15 games at the European Championship (31 shots).
Will it finally be Müller time?
Scotland won their first five Euro 2024 qualifiers but then failed to win any of their final three (D2 L1), conceding seven goals in those games after only shipping one in their opening five.
Germany have won only one of their last five matches played in Munich (D3 L1), a 4-2 victory against Portugal at Euro 2020. So, while the hosts will be overwhelming favourites for many, Scotland needn’t go into this devoid of belief, with captain Andrew Robertson and midfield duo John McGinn and Scott McTominay offering a threat, too.
In fact, McTominay was the top scorer in qualifying Group A with seven goals – one more than Manchester City superstar Haaland managed for Norway.
McTominay’s goal tally is the joint most by a Scottish player in a Euros/World Cup qualifying campaign, along with Steven Fletcher (Euro 2016) and McGinn (Euro 2020). And what’s even more impressive is his goals came from just 1.77 xG, an overperformance of 5.23. Talk about clinical.
Germany vs Scotland Head-to-Head
Germany and Scotland are facing each other for the third time at a major tournament. The Germans won the two previous encounters, in the group stages of the 1986 World Cup (2-1) and Euro 1992 (2-0).
Scotland actually had more shots (21 to 19) than Germany in that Euro 1992 fixture, mustering 2.39 xG to Germany’s 1.9, but it was the eventual runners-up who got over the line thanks to goals from Karl-Heinz Riedle and Stefan Effenberg.
In fact, Scotland have won only one of their last 13 matches against Germany (D4 L8); it was in April 1999, with Don Hutchison scoring the only goal in a Bremen friendly (0-1).
Germany vs Scotland Prediction
It’s no surprise to see Germany are strong favourites to win this match, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of victory at 70.4%.
Scotland should have some confidence, but our model is not fancying their chances. They are handed just a 12.2% win likelihood before kick-off, with the draw also played out across 17.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Germany vs Scotland Squads
Germany
Manuel Neuer, Marc-André ter Stegen, Oliver Baumann, Antonio Rüdiger, Benjamin Henrichs, David Raum, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Nico Schlotterbeck, Robin Koch, Waldemar Anton, Emre Can, Chris Führich, Florian Wirtz, Ilkay Gündogan, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sané, Pascal Groß, Robert Andrich, Toni Kroos, Deniz Undav, Kai Havertz, Maximilian Beier, Niclas Füllkrug, Thomas Müller.
Head coach: Julian Nagelsmann
Scotland
Angus Gunn, Liam Kelly, Zander Clark, Andy Robertson, Anthony Ralston, Grant Hanley, Greg Taylor, Jack Hendry, Kieran Tierney, Liam Cooper, Ross McCrorie, Ryan Porteous, Scott McKenna, Billy Gilmour, Callum McGregor, James Forrest, John McGinn, Kenny McLean, Lewis Morgan, Ryan Christie, Ryan Jack, Scott McTominay, Stuart Armstrong, Ché Adams, Lawrence Shankland, Tommy Conway.
Head coach: Steve Clarke
Germany vs Scotland Predicted Lineups
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