Ahead of their final game in Group D at Euro 2024, here’s our France vs Poland prediction and preview.
France vs Poland Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes France heavy favourites, with Les Bleus winning 70.3% of pre-match simulations.
- France are currently on a run of 367 minutes without conceding a goal, having kept a clean sheet in each of their last four internationals.
- Poland have lost both of their games at Euro 2024 so far, while they’ve never previously lost three games in a single group stage at a major tournament.
France flattered to deceive against the Netherlands last time out, and were perhaps fortunate not to lose after Xavi Simons saw his second-half goal disallowed for offside.
Les Bleus were without star man and recent mask aficionado Kylian Mbappé, but will hope to have him back for this one as they look to seal their passage to the last 16 from Group D, ideally in top spot.
However, France haven’t won their final group stage match in any of the last eight major tournaments (World Cup/Euros), since beating Togo 2-0 at the 2006 FIFA World Cup (D4 L4).
They will be heavily fancied against Poland, though, with Michał Probierz’s men already out of Euro 2024 after two defeats from two. They have never previously lost three games in a single group stage at a major tournament, though.
Poland have been without their own star striker in Robert Lewandowski, barring a late cameo in the 3-1 defeat to Austria on Matchday 2. Lewandowski, who had been out with a thigh injury, actually came on with the game tied at 1-1, but could hardly be blamed for his team’s defensive frailties that were exposed by the Austrians.
France’s record in final group games might not be great, but Poland have lost their final group stage match in three of their four previous appearances at the European Championship, with the exception being a 1-0 win against Ukraine in 2016 – the only time they’ve reached the knockout stage of the competition.
France haven’t been beaten in any of their eight games in the group stage at the European Championship under Didier Deschamps (W4 D4), with their last such defeat coming on MD 3 of Euro 2012 against Sweden under Laurent Blanc (2-0).
Whether you agreed with the decision to rule out Simons’ goal on Friday, there’s no denying how strong France are at the back. They are currently on a run of 367 minutes without conceding a goal, having kept a clean sheet in each of their last four internationals. The last player to score against them was Chile’s Darío Osorio in a friendly back in March.
Antoine Griezmann was a frustrated man against the Dutch, having five shots but failing to find the net. Should he play on Tuesday, he will overtake Lilian Thuram (32) as the outfield player with the most major tournament appearances for France (currently on 32).
N’Golo Kanté has been a man reborn in Germany, and has also made more major tournament appearances without losing than any other European player, with France unbeaten in all 17 games Kanté has played across the European Championship and World Cup (W12 D5).
Piotr Zielinski is likely to be key to any hopes Poland have of an upset in Dortmund. The midfielder has been directly involved in more shots than any other Polish player at Euro 2024 (11 – seven shots, four chances created), as well as completing the most passes for his side (68) across the first two rounds.
With Mbappé and Lewandowski likely to be playing, it will be interesting to see who has more of an impact on their side. We back Kylian… by a nose.
France vs Poland Head-to-Head
This will be the third meeting between France and Poland in a major tournament, and the first at the European Championship. Poland won a third place play-off match 3-2 at the 1982 FIFA World Cup, while France won 3-1 in the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup, which was their last meeting in all competitions.
France are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Poland in all competitions (W4 D4), since losing a friendly match 4-0 in August 1982.
France vs Poland Prediction
France are heavily fancied to win their final game in Group D, beating Poland in 70.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
Poland may have only pride to play for, but the supercomputer sees them restore plenty with what would be an upset victory in 12.2% of sims, while the draw occurs in the remaining 27.5%.
Overall, France remain the supercomputer’s favourites to win the entire competition, given an 18.2% chance of doing so. That’s marginally below Germany (18.3%) and just above England (17.2%).
France vs Poland Squads
France
Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
Poland
Lukasz Skorupski, Marcin Bulka, Wojciech Szczesny, Bartosz Bereszynski, Bartosz Salamon, Jakub Kiwior, Jan Bednarek, Pawel Dawidowicz, Sebastian Walukiewicz, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Bartosz Slisz, Damian Szymanski, Jakub Moder, Jakub Piotrowski, Kacper Urbanski, Kamil Grosicki, Nicola Zalewski, Piotr Zielinski, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Sebastian Szymanski, Taras Romanczuk, Adam Buksa, Karol Swiderski, Krzysztof Piatek, Michal Skóras, Robert Lewandowski.
Head coach: Michał Probierz
France vs Poland Predicted Lineups
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