Gareth Southgate’s side must respond after their disappointing Euro 2024 draw with Denmark. We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash with our England vs Slovenia prediction and preview.
England vs Slovenia Stats: The Key Insights
- England are the overriding favourites against Slovenia, winning 66.5% of pre-match simulations run by the Opta supercomputer.
- Slovenia have never beaten England in their six attempts across all competitions (D1 L5).
- England are looking to go through a fourth consecutive European Championship group stage unbeaten, having done so in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
England know a win, but more importantly, a performance is needed when they face Slovenia in Cologne for Tuesday’s Euro 2024 clash.
The Three Lions squandered the opportunity to secure qualification to the knockout stages from Group C after a lacklustre display in a 1-1 draw with Denmark last time out.
Harry Kane’s 18th-minute opener had given Gareth Southgate’s side an early advantage but, much like in their opening 1-0 win against Serbia, England then failed to capitalise on an early lead.
This time they were punished when Morten Hjulmand’s effort from distance levelled proceedings, with Denmark perhaps unfortunate to not claim all three points.
Southgate’s men still remain in the driving seat, sitting top of their pool on four points, two clear of Denmark – who face Serbia in Tuesday’s other meeting – and Slovenia.
Yet Slovenia coach Matjaž Kek may fancy an upset here as England really haven’t fired at all at Euro 2024 yet. The Three Lions have faced five more shots than they have attempted in Germany (17 shots for, 22 against).
England are also averaging just 8.9 shots per game at the Euros under Southgate (80 in 9 games). Going into Matchday 3, that is the lowest shots per game any nation has had under a manager to take charge of them in more than five matches at the European Championship on record (since 1980).
Any form of cohesion and fluidity is yet to transpire for Southgate’s side as jeers echoed around the Frankfurt Arena from the travelling contingent after their underwhelming display against Denmark.
Kane, who scored 44 goals in all competitions in his debut season for Bayern Munich in 2023-24, had the fewest touches (22) of any England player who started the game on Thursday, while also managing just one touch in the Danes’ penalty area.
Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham also all failed to impress behind Kane, while questions persist over the capability of makeshift midfielder Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Despite creating more chances (3) and playing more line-breaking passes in the final third (5) against Denmark, it looks likely that Alexander-Arnold’s time in midfield could be up, but it remains to be seen who will replace him.
Conor Gallagher has replaced the Liverpool man in England’s last two games, but only completed 82.4% of his 17 passes against Denmark and collected a yellow card for his troubles.
Kobbie Mainoo and Adam Wharton are possible replacements to feature alongside Declan Rice, but both are yet to feature at a major tournament after breakthrough Premier League campaigns last season.
Meanwhile, Slovenia know they must achieve an improbable feat to keep their Euro 2024 journey alive, with their confidence taking a hit after coming inches away from securing a maiden victory at the European Championships.
Luka Jovic’s leveller in Thursday’s 1-1 draw with Serbia marked the latest result-altering goal in a Euros match of all-time (excluding extra-time), with his equaliser timed at exactly 95 minutes. That late heartbreak leaves Slovenia winless across five matches at UEFA’s flagship international tournament (D4 L1).
It had started well for Kek’s side when Zan Karnicnik netted his second international goal, but Slovenia succumbed to a familiar fate. Their opener was only the second time they’d gone ahead in a game at the finals, with the other instance coming against Yugoslavia at Euro 2000 when Slovenia led 3-0 before collapsing to a 3-3 draw.
Yet there may still be hope for Kek as Slovenia are unbeaten in their last eight games in all competitions (W4 D4), only enjoying a longer such run once in history (nine games between September 2020 and March 2021).
England vs Slovenia Head-to-Head
This will be only England and Slovenia’s second encounter at a major tournament, with the Three Lions winning 1-0 in the group stages of the 2010 World Cup.
Yet Southgate’s side have a fine head-to-head record in this meeting, suggesting any concerns over an unlikely upset should be off the cards.
Slovenia have failed to win any of their six matches against England across all competitions (D1 L5).
Only against Greece and fellow Group C side Denmark have Slovenia faced a side on more occasions (both seven) without ever winning a single match.
England vs Slovenia Prediction
England are expected to win on Tuesday, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a dominant 66.5% chance of getting the job done in Cologne and topping Group C.
Slovenia are predicted a meagre 14.2% likelihood of claiming a maiden triumph against their opponents in the same data-led simulations, with a draw forecast slightly higher at 19.3%.
Despite recent scrutiny, England still have a 17.2% hope of securing European glory in Opta’s tournament predictions, behind only Germany (18.3%) and France (18.2%).
England vs Slovenia Squads
England
Aaron Ramsdale, Dean Henderson, Jordan Pickford, Ezri Konsa, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Kieran Trippier, Kyle Walker, Lewis Dunk, Luke Shaw, Marc Guéhi, Adam Wharton, Conor Gallagher, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Kobbie Mainoo, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Anthony Gordon, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Eberechi Eze, Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Jarrod Bowen, Ollie Watkins, Phil Foden.
Head coach: Gareth Southgate
Slovenia
Igor Vekic, Jan Oblak, Vid Belec, David Brekalo, Erik Janza, Jaka Bijol, Jure Balkovec, Miha Blazic, Petar Stojanovic, Vanja Drkusic, Zan Karnicnik, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Adrian Zeljkovic, Benjamin Verbic, Jasmin Kurtic, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Josip Ilicic, Sandi Lovric, Timi Max Elsnik, Tomi Horvat, Andraz Sporar, Benjamin Sesko, Jan Mlakar, Nino Zugelj, Zan Celar, Zan Vipotnik.
Head coach: Matjaž Kek
England vs Slovenia Predicted Lineups
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