With both teams still in with a shot of advancing from Group C at Euro 2024, here’s our Denmark vs Serbia prediction and preview.
Denmark vs Serbia Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Denmark favourites for this one. A win that would likely see them reach the last 16 occurred in 44.7% of its pre-match simulations.
- This could be the first time Denmark have progressed to the knockout stage in consecutive European Championships.
- Serbia have only won four of their 13 games in all competitions (W4 D3 L6) and have kept just two clean sheets in their last 14 matches.
Matchday 2 could have been so different in Group C. Slovenia came within seconds of beating Serbia, while Denmark fell behind to an England team that initially looked hungry to show their credentials.
However, Luka Jovic’s last-minute equaliser saved Serbia’s tournament, while the Danes not only came back to level things but could consider themselves unlucky not to take all three points against the Three Lions.
It leaves Group C tantalisingly poised heading into MD 3, with both of these teams eager to navigate their way to the knockout stage.
Denmark are looking to progress from the group stage of consecutive European Championships for the first time. They beat Russia 4-1 on MD 3 at Euro 2020, eventually reaching the semi-finals before they lost to England.
Kasper Hjulmand’s men have drawn both of their matches at Euro 2024 so far, having only drawn two of their previous 18 matches at the European Championship before this (W6 L10).
Andreas Christensen may have unfortunately deflected the ball into the path of Harry Kane to score in Frankfurt, but the Barcelona defender has completed 138 of his 141 pass attempts at Euro 2024 so far, with his 98% completion rate the highest on record by a Denmark player to play more than one game at a European Championship (since 1980).
Arguably the star man has, appropriately, been Christian Eriksen. The Manchester United midfielder has created 11 chances in two matches in Germany – no Denmark player has ever created more chances at a single major tournament on record (since 1980).
Serbia are still looking for their first win, and in fact are winless in their last seven major tournament matches (D2 L5) since a 1-0 win over Costa Rica at the 2018 World Cup. They last had a longer tournament winless run between 1974 and 1982 as Yugoslavia (eight games).
Dragan Stojković’s side will have to break that run in Munich if they want to progress. Since winning four consecutive matches between January and June 2023, though, Serbia have only won four of their 13 games in all competitions (W4 D3 L6) and have kept just two clean sheets in their last 14 matches.
Jovic has had to take a back seat to Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic but could be considered for a start after ending a run of seven appearances in a row without a goal for Serbia on MD 2 with his vital header. The Milan striker last scored in consecutive games for his country in June 2022. Coincidentally, the first goal in that run came against Slovenia in a UEFA Nations League match.
Across Serbia’s last two major tournaments (2022 World Cup + Euro 2024), Mitrovic has had 17 shots, nine more than any other Serbian player. However, he has only scored twice from those efforts.
It’ll be a tense game, but with both showing their powers of recovery, anything could happen at the Allianz Arena.
Denmark vs Serbia Head-to-Head
Denmark have won all three of their matches against Serbia since the latter had their independence restored in 2006 (8 goals for, 1 against).
The Danes’ only previous meeting with Serbia or Yugoslavia at a major tournament was at Euro 84. They beat Yugoslavia 5-0 in the group stage.
The last meeting between the two was in March 2022, with Denmark winning their friendly 3-0 in Copenhagen. Joakim Mæhle, Jesper Lindstrøm and Eriksen found the net for the hosts.
Denmark vs Serbia Prediction
The Opta supercomputer isn’t entirely sure about this one, with Denmark made slight favourites, winning 44.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Serbia came out on top in 29.8% of sims, while a draw that would see Serbia eliminated and Denmark struggling happened in the remaining 25.5%.
The Danes make it through to the last 16 in 77.3% of simulations, while Serbia only do so in 36.7%.
Denmark vs Serbia Squads
Denmark
Frederik Rønnow, Kasper Schmeichel, Mads Hermansen, Alexander Bah, Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, Joachim Andersen, Joakim Mæhle, Rasmus Kristensen, Simon Kjær, Victor Kristiansen, Zanka, Christian Eriksen, Christian Nørgaard, Mathias Jensen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Morten Hjulmand, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Thomas Delaney, Anders Dreyer, Andreas Skov Olsen, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Jonas Wind, Kasper Dolberg, Rasmus Højlund, Yussuf Poulsen.
Head coach: Kasper Hjulmand
Serbia
Djordje Petrovic, Predrag Rajkovic, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, Filip Mladenovic, Milos Veljkovic, Nemanja Stojic, Nikola Milenkovic, Srdjan Babic, Strahinja Pavlovic, Uros Spajic, Filip Kostic, Ivan Ilic, Lazar Samardzic, Mijat Gacinovic, Nemanja Gudelj, Nemanja Maksimovic, Sasa Lukic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Srdjan Mijailovic, Veljko Birmancevic, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Andrija Zivkovic, Dusan Tadic, Dusan Vlahovic, Luka Jovic, Petar Ratkov.
Head coach: Dragan Stojković
Denmark vs Serbia Predicted Lineups
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