The Belgians will be hoping for more luck in this game following their shock 1-0 defeat to Slovakia. We look ahead to this Euro 2024 Group E match in Cologne with our Belgium vs Romania prediction and preview.
Belgium vs Romania Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Belgium as the most likely winners of this match, with Domenico Tedesco’s side winning 62.8% of pre-match simulations against Romania.
- Belgium have failed to score with any of their last 47 shots in major international tournaments.
- Romania are looking to win more than one match at a single edition of the European Championship for the very first time.
Belgium’s 1-0 defeat to Slovakia in their opening game at Euro 2024 was arguably the first big shock of the tournament. Slovakia – ranked 42 places below Belgium in the current FIFA Rankings – scored the only goal of the game in the seventh minute via Ivan Schranz, and Belgium were unable to come from behind to rescue even a point.
That defeat did see Romelu Lukaku have two goals disallowed. The first of those saw the striker deemed offside, while the second came very late on following a VAR intervention due to Loïs Openda’s handball before assisting. Lukaku was the top scorer in Euro 2024 qualifying with 14 goals in eight appearances, but luck escaped him on Monday afternoon.
That defeat was Tedesco’s first in charge of the Belgians across 15 games since his appointment in February 2023. Belgium would have hoped a change of coach could have brought them more fortune in front of goal after their disastrous 2022 World Cup appearance, where they went out in the group stage and scored just once. As it was, the poor form in front of goal continued.
Following the Slovakia defeat, Belgium have scored just one goal from 51 shots totalling 6.7 expected goals (xG) in four tournament matches at the last World Cup and Euro 2024 combined. Coming into this match, their last 47 shots in tournament football have failed to find the back of the net.
Romania had no such trouble in their opening Euro 2024 match versus Ukraine. Their 3-0 victory in Munich was their best-ever win in tournament football (World Cup and Euros combined), and they scored their three goals from just nine shots worth 1.2 xG.
They didn’t even need to have much of the ball to secure the three points, either. Romania’s 29% possession figure against Ukraine is the lowest share for a winning team on record (since 1980) in a single match at the European Championship.
They will now be looking for just their third European Championship victory in what is their 18th game in the competition, while a win in this game would see them victorious in more than one match at a major tournament for just the third time after the World Cups in both 1994 (3) and 1998 (2).
Belgium vs Romania Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever meeting between Belgium and Romania at a major tournament, across both the World Cup and European Championship.
The last meeting between the two nations came back in November 2012, when Romania enjoyed a 2-1 friendly win in Bucharest. Christian Benteke put Belgium in the lead, before goals from Alexandru Maxim and Gabriel Torje (penalty) turned the game around.
Belgium last beat Romania in November 2011, winning a friendly 2-1 in Brussels. This is their only win in their last five meetings with the Romanians (L3 D1).
Belgium vs Romania Prediction
Belgium are the big favourites to win this match with the Opta supercomputer. They won 62.8% of the pre-match simulations, while Romania won only 16.6%. However, ahead of their opening game against Slovakia, the Belgians were also deemed heavy favourites (61.5%) and lost 1-0.
At the time of writing, Belgium are still predicted to make it out of the group and into the last 16 in 70.7% of simulations, while they even won Group E 16.8% of the time in the supercomputer sims. In comparison, Romania made it to the last 16 in 94.0% of sims, compared to 57.4% before a ball was kicked at Euro 2024.
Belgium vs Romania Squads
Belgium
Koen Casteels, Matz Sels, Thomas Kaminski, Arthur Theate, Axel Witsel, Jan Vertonghen, Maxim De Cuyper, Thomas Meunier, Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Amadou Onana, Arthur Vermeeren, Aster Vranckx, Kevin De Bruyne, Orel Mangala, Youri Tielemans, Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukébakio, Jérémy Doku, Johan Bakayoko, Leandro Trossard, Loïs Openda, Romelu Lukaku, Yannick Carrasco.
Head coach: Domenico Tedesco
Romania
Florin Nita, Horatiu Moldovan, Stefan Târnovanu, Adrian Rus, Andrei Burca, Andrei Ratiu, Bogdan Racovitan, Ionut Nedelcearu, Nicusor Bancu, Radu Dragusin, Vasile Mogos, Adrian Sut, Alexandru Cicâldau, Darius Olaru, Deian Sorescu, Dennis Man, Florinel Coman, Ianis Hagi, Marius Marin, Nicolae Stanciu, Razvan Marin, Valentin Mihaila, Daniel Bîrligea, Denis Alibec, Denis Dragus, George Puscas.
Head coach: Edward Iordănescu
Belgium vs Romania Predicted Lineups
Our football newsletter ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ is going all in on Euro 2024 this summer, so sign up to receive exclusive content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.