Spain are already through to the Euro 2024 knockout stage as group winners, but will Albania join them from Group B? Here’s our Albania vs Spain prediction and preview.
Albania vs Spain Stats: The Key Insights
- Spain are heavy favourites to finish Group B with maximum points, beating Albania in 73.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Albania have scored first in both Euro 2024 games so far, but are yet to win (D1 L1). No team has ever scored first in three consecutive Euros games and not won any of them.
- Spain have beaten Albania in all eight of their previous meetings, scoring 31 times and conceding just three.
Spain’s 1-0 win over Italy on Matchday 2 not only secured their place in the knockout stage at Euro 2024 but also cemented them as winners of Group B. They will be looking to win their opening three games of a European Championship for just a second time, having previously done so in 2008, when they went on to win the tournament.
Manager Luis de la Fuente may decide to ring the changes and rest his stars against Albania, especially given the amount of hard work that was put into their impressive performance against the Azzurri.
Spain won possession in the final third on 10 occasions against Italy on Thursday; the most times they’ve done so in a game at the European Championship since the 2008 quarter-final, which was also against the Italians (13).
Nico Williams was in sensational form against Italy, and it was his cross that was turned into his own net by the unfortunate Riccardo Calafiori to win it for La Roja.
Williams created the most chances (4) and completed the joint-most dribbles (4) of any Spain player against Italy. Indeed, the last Spaniard to create as many chances and complete as many dribbles in the same game at the European Championship was Andrés Iniesta against Croatia in 2012 (also 4 for both metrics).
Given Spain are already through as group winners, Pedri could be among those rested in Düsseldorf. If the talented youngster does feature for Spain in this match, though, he will establish a new record by a European player for major tournament appearances (World Cup/Euros) while aged 21 or under, overtaking Cristiano Ronaldo (currently level on 12 games each).
One player who will definitely be absent for Spain is Rodri, who is suspended after collecting yellow cards against both Croatia and Italy.
Albania still have a chance of qualifying, having rescued a late point last time out against Croatia. They had to score a 95th-minute equaliser despite having earlier taken the lead. Albania have scored the opening goal in each of their two matches at Euro 2024, although they are yet to win (D1 L1). No nation has ever scored first in three European Championship games in a row and failed to win any of them.
Qazim Laçi gave Albania the lead against Croatia, only for Andrej Kramaric and a Klaus Gjasula own goal to turn things around. Gjasula made amends by slotting the late leveller, meaning a win here would give Albania four points and a strong chance of being one of the four third-place teams in the tournament to go through.
Gjasula became the first player in the history of the European Championship and World Cup combined to come off the bench and score a goal and an own goal. In 17 minutes at Euro 2024, Gjasula has had as many shots on target as he did in 1,366 minutes in the German Bundesliga this season for SV Darmstadt 98 (1).
Sylvinho’s men have conceded two goals in both of their Group B games, having only shipped two or more goals in one of their previous 14 outings in all competitions. They haven’t conceded 2+ goals in three games in a row since a run of five between October 2016 and June 2017.
Kristjan Asllani is likely to be a key figure if Albania are to threaten Spain’s 100% record. Across their two matches, he leads all Albanian players for shots attempted (4), shots on target (2), successful passes (91) and passes in the final third (20), while he’s also created the joint-most chances (3).
Albania vs Spain Head-to-Head
Spain have a flawless record against Albania, winning all eight of their previous encounters, scoring 31 goals and conceding just three. It is Spain’s best 100% record against any opponent, alongside Liechtenstein and Malta, whom they’ve also faced and beaten on eight occasions.
Albania lost 9-0 to Spain in a Euros qualifier in December 1990, which remains their largest ever competitive defeat. They have also conceded at least twice to them in every previous meeting.
Their last encounter was a friendly in March 2022, which Spain won 2-1 at home thanks to Ferran Torres and a last-minute winner from Dani Olmo after Myrto Uzuni had equalised for the visitors.
Albania vs Spain Prediction
Despite already being through to the last 16 and likely making several changes, the Opta supercomputer still thinks Spain will make it three wins from three. La Roja win this one in 61.5% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Albania need to win to have any chance of advancing with them, but only do so in 16.7% of sims, while a draw occurs in the remaining 21.8%.
Albania vs Spain Squads
Albania
Elhan Kastrati, Etrit Berisha, Thomas Strakosha, Ardian Ismajli, Arlind Ajeti, Berat Djimsiti, Elseid Hysaj, Enea Mihaj, Iván Balliu, Marash Kumbulla, Mario Mitaj, Naser Aliji, Amir Abrashi, Ernest Muçi, Klaus Gjasula, Kristjan Asllani, Medon Berisha, Nedim Bajrami, Qazim Laçi, Ylber Ramadani, Arbër Hoxha, Armando Broja, Jasir Asani, Mirlind Daku, Rey Manaj, Taulant Seferi.
Head coach: Sylvinho
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
Albania vs Spain Predicted Lineups
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