Edin Terzić’s side have the advantage heading to the French capital but can Luis Enrique’s men come back? We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League semi-final with our PSG vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and preview.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: The Quick Hits
- Paris Saint-Germain are the favourites to win on the night against Borussia Dortmund, with the hosts succeeding in 60.6% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- PSG could become the first side to lose the first leg in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals of a UEFA Champions League campaign and still progress to the final.
- Kylian Mbappé has managed 32 direct goal involvements in the 31 home games he’s started in this competition (21 goals, 11 assists).
Match Preview
Luis Enrique will be under no illusion this is the competition Qatar Sports Investment want Paris Saint-Germain to win. The Parisian have already secured the Ligue 1 title but their UEFA Champions League hopes hang in the balance ahead of Tuesday’s second-leg meeting with Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals.
Parc des Princes will play host to an enticing European meeting as Dortmund head to the French capital with a slender 1-0 lead to defend from the first clash at Signal Iduna Park. Niclas Füllkrug’s emphatic first-half finish is the only thing separating these two sides, though PSG are on familiar territory having to make up ground.
Following their 6-4 comeback win on aggregate over Barcelona in the previous round, PSG could become the first side to lose the first leg in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals of a Champions League campaign and still progress to reach the final.
It could have been so different heading into Tuesday, though, as Kylian Mbappé and Achraf Hakimi were both denied by the woodwork in the first meeting. Indeed, PSG recorded 14 shots in the opener against Dortmund, their most without scoring in a Champions League game since their 2020-21 semi-final second leg against Manchester City (14 – lost 2-0).
Mbappé will fancy his chances on the biggest of European nights once more, though. The French forward has been directly involved in 32 goals in 31 home games he’s started in the Champions League (21 goals, 11 assists).
Only once previously has Mbappé failed to score in both legs of a knockout stage tie in the competition when starting in both matches. That came against long-term suitors Real Madrid in the round of 16 in 2017-18.
Mbappé has also created the most chances under pressure (23) of any player in the Champions League this season, although none of those have been converted by a PSG teammate. The superstar forward will likely start through the middle once more, with Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele on either flank of Luis Enrique’s star-studded lineup.
Yet Edin Terzić has his own quality to call upon, with Dortmund midfielder Marcel Sabitzer boasting the most assists under pressure (5) in the competition this term. Despite not scoring, Jadon Sancho stole the show last time out against PSG, completing 13 dribbles – the most by a player in a knockout stage game in the Champions League since Neymar versus Atalanta in August 2020 (15 for PSG).
Overall, Manchester United loanee Sancho has completed more dribbles (22) than any other player in the knockout stages of the UEFA’s top club tournament this term, and PSG full-back Nuno Mendes may still be having nightmares from last Wednesday night.
Dortmund’s preparations for this could not have gone much better either, hammering Augsburg 5-1 on Saturday as Youssoufa Moukoko (2), Donyell Malen, Marco Reus and Felix Nmecha were all on target at Signal Iduna Park. Karim Adeyemi sustained a knock in that win but should be fine, while Sébastien Haller and Julian Ryerson should overcome fitness issues to feature.
Ramy Bensebaïni and Julien Duranville remain out for Dortmund, while PSG will be without Lucas Hernández, who joins Presnel Kimpembe, Layvin Kurzawa and Sergio Rico as long-term absentees after his concerning ACL injury in the first leg.
Hernández’s absence will likely mean Beraldo starts as PSG aim to reach a European Cup/Champions League final for just the second time (previously in 2019-20). Dortmund could do so for the third time in their history, after 1996-97 and 2012-13; the latter being the last time the final of this competition was played at Wembley Stadium.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head
This will be the eighth meeting between PSG and Dortmund in European competition, with both sides winning two games apiece to date (three draws).
However, all four of the victories recorded in this fixture have been by the team playing at home, which will have Luis Enrique hopeful heading into this semi-final meeting.
Terzić may be concerned, too, as Dortmund have faced PSG away from home in Europe on three occasions but have never won (D1 L2) or scored on any of those trips.
The Bundesliga side were beaten 2-0 away to the French side in this season’s group stage in September after Mbappé’s penalty and a goal for Hakimi, with Dortmund only managing one shot on target in that game.
Recent Form
Terzić needs a minor miracle to keep PSG at bay on Tuesday given the Parisians have only failed to score in two of their last 38 home games in the Champions League (93 goals scored in this run).
Dortmund’s Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich were the team to keep a clean sheet on both of those occasions (1-0 in February 2023 and April 2021), though PSG have been far from convincing in this season’s competition.
Luis Enrique’s side have trailed on the scoreboard (339 minutes) for longer than they’ve been ahead (291 minutes) in the Champions League this campaign. They’ve also conceded the opening goal in each of their last three games in the competition, their longest such run since April 2015 (4).
Yet Dortmund have somewhat benefitted fortuitously this term, too. Terzić’s men have the biggest difference between goals conceded and expected goals against in this season’s competition (+10.7 – nine conceded from 19.7 xG against).
The only two instances of a team hitting the woodwork twice and failing to score in a game in the competition this term were both against Dortmund – PSG in the first leg and Newcastle in October 2023 – and Terzić will hope that fortune does not run out.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a second-leg win for PSG, who triumphed in 60.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
A draw would send Dortmund into the final, with that result forecast in 20.3%, while an unlikely away win was predicted less often in 19% of data-led sims.
That means Dortmund have a dominant 61% chance of making the showpiece at Wembley, according to Opta’s tournament predictions, while they go all the way to win the competition in 22.9%.
In contrast, PSG’s hopes of semi-final progression sit at just 39% with their 17.2% likelihood of lifting the trophy the fewest behind Bayern (18.2%), Dortmund and favourites Real Madrid (41.6%).
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund UCL Squads
Paris Saint-Germain: Keylor Navas, Alexandre Letellier, Arnau Tenas, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Nordi Mukiele, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Manuel Ugarte, Fabián Ruiz, Danilo, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Ethan Mbappé, Senny Mayulu, Kylian Mbappé, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Ian Maatsen, Lion Semic, Özcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.
Head Coach: Edin Terzić
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