Sean Dyche has staved off another Premier League relegation threat, but can the Hatters do the same? We look ahead to Friday’s game with our Luton vs Everton prediction and preview.
Luton vs Everton Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two sides in the pre-match simulations, with Luton Town winning 36.3% and Everton succeeding in 34.8%.
- Luton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (D3 L10), with no side picking up fewer points than the Hatters since the start of this run (6).
- Everton are winless in nine away league games (D3 L6), since beating Burnley 2-0 in December.
Match Preview
Luton Town will be hoping to put pressure on Nottingham Forest in the Premier League relegation battle when Everton visit Kenilworth Road on Friday.
Sean Dyche’s side secured their top-flight safety last weekend after a 1-0 victory over Brentford at Goodison Park, with Idrissa Gueye’s 60th-minute strike proving the difference. However, Everton could have another huge say in the relegation fight when they head south for this evening kick-off.
Luton are just a point behind 17th-placed Nottingham Forest and could – at least temporarily – overtake Nuno Espírito Santo’s team, who travel to already relegated Sheffield United on Saturday.
It will be a tough ask, though, given Rob Edwards’ men have lost their last three league games, conceding 12 goals in the process. Back-to-back 5-1 demolitions by Manchester City and Brentford preceded a 2-1 loss against Wolves at Molineux last time out, leaving Luton with just three games to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
Going further back, Luton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (D3 L10), with no side picking up fewer points than their six since the start of this run. Despite this, Edwards’ team have only failed to score in one of their last 23 league games, a 2-0 defeat at leaders Arsenal last month.
Carlton Morris’ 80th-minute strike proved too little too late last Saturday against Wolves as Luton were unable to find a way back after goals in either half for Hwang Hee-Chan and Toti Gomes. Morris leads the club charts with 10 Premier League goals this term and has scored in four of his last six appearances at Kenilworth Road.
Luton midfielder Ross Barkley made 150 league appearances for Everton between 2011 and 2017 and will likely start against his former side. Barkley has scored just one goal in 10 Premier League games against sides he’s previously played for in the competition, though that strike did come in this campaign at home to Chelsea.
With top-flight survival at stake, expect more late action from the hosts, too. Luton have managed 20 goals in the final 15 minutes of games this term (76th minute onwards), with that 42% share of their overall strikes (48 overall) the highest ratio of any Premier League club in 2023-24.
Yet Everton come into this one off the back of an impressive run, with three straight victories at Goodison Park – against Brentford, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest – lifting them away from danger. Jordan Pickford did not concede across that three-game winning run as the Everton goalkeeper continues to push Arsenal’s David Raya close for the Premier League’s Golden Glove award.
Pickford’s defence may once again be depleted on Friday night, however, as full-back pair Seamus Coleman and Vitalii Mykolenko face a race for fitness. Dominic Calvert-Lewin should return from illness, while Lewis Dobbin may feature on the bench after his recovery from an ankle injury. However, Nathan Patterson, André Gomes and Deli Alli remain sidelined.
Luton have their own injury concerns as Edwards’ injury-hit lineup continues to suffer. Mads Andersen, Chiedozie Ogbene, Dan Potts, Amari’i Bell, Jacob Brown, Marvelous Nakamba, Issa Kaboré and Tom Lockyer are all out for this clash.
Luton vs Everton Head-to-Head
Luton have already beaten Everton in the Premier League and FA Cup fourth round this season, with Lockyer and Morris scoring in the 2-1 top-flight win at Goodison Park in late September.
However, only three teams have beaten Everton home and away in their first Premier League season (excluding 1992-93): Newcastle United in 1993-94, Sunderland in 1996-97 and Brentford in 2021-22.
As a league club, Luton last beat another team three times in one season in 1988-89 against West Ham, while Leeds United were the last newly promoted club to do the treble over Everton, doing so in 1964-65.
This will also be Everton’s first away match against Luton since a 1-0 win in the EFL Cup in October 2007, with Tim Cahill netting an extra-time winner. Their last league visit to Kenilworth Road also ended in a 1-0 victory back in November 1991 thanks to a Robert Warzycha goal.
Recent Form
Having won three in a row at Goodison Park, Everton could make it four consecutive wins while keeping a clean sheet for the second time this Premier League season (also in December).
Only seven sides have had two separate runs of 4+ wins without conceding in a single campaign in the competition, five of whom went on to be crowned champions that season.
Yet Dyche needs improvements away from Merseyside, given Everton are winless in nine away Premier League games (D3 L6) since beating Burnley 2-0 in December. Though five of the Toffees’ first eight league wins this season came away from home, each of their last four since have all been at Goodison Park.
Luton overcame Bournemouth earlier in April thanks to Morris’ late winner in a 2-1 victory, though before that Edwards’ side had not won at home since 30 January in a 4-0 demolition of Brighton.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Friday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Luton vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Luton vs Everton Prediction
A close encounter is expected under the lights on Friday, with the Opta supercomputer predicting a win for Luton in 36.8% of pre-match simulations and an Everton victory in 34.8%.
Sharing the points would perhaps mark a missed opportunity for Edwards’ hosts to put pressure on Forest, though that result was forecast in 28.9% of sims.
Luton have just a 21% chance of avoiding relegation in Opta’s end-of-season simulations, behind Forest (67.4%) but ahead of Burnley (11.6%), while Everton finish 15th – their current league-table position – most often at 46.3%.
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