The Premier League title race takes centre-stage in Saturday’s early kick-off. We look ahead to the game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Bournemouth prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Bournemouth Stats: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are favoured to pile the pressure on Manchester City by winning Saturday’s early kick-off, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 70.3% of victory against Bournemouth.
- The Gunners have won all six of their home Premier League games against Bournemouth. Only against Stoke City (10/10) do they have a better 100% record on their own turf.
- Since earning their first win of the season on 28 October, Bournemouth have collected 45 points from 26 Premier League games, a tally only bettered by the current top four.
Match Preview
While Manchester City are in ominous form and remain in control of the Premier League title race, Arsenal are keeping the champions honest, winning their last three games to put themselves in a position to take advantage if Pep Guardiola’s side do slip up.
They passed what many considered to be the toughest examination of their credentials against Tottenham last week, but they should expect another stern test against in-form Bournemouth in Saturday’s early kick-off.
With Liverpool’s challenge falling by the wayside, Arsenal’s chances of winning the title have improved from 26.6% ahead of the Spurs game to 33.3% now, according to the Opta supercomputer. Before last week’s game, Mikel Arteta joked he was looking for a way to “trick” the supercomputer, but they still have work to do to be seen as favourites, with City triumphing in 66.6% of scenarios.
A ruthless first-half display was enough to earn Arsenal a 3-2 victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz on target after Pierre-Emile Højbjerg put through his own net. That was Arteta’s 100th victory in 169 games as a Premier League manager, the Spaniard requiring 10 fewer matches to hit that milestone than Arsène Wenger did.
Two of Arsenal’s goals in the North London derby came from corners, and they have now scored 16 goals from such situations in the Premier League this season, the most by any team in a single campaign since Tony Pulis’ West Bromwich Albion in 2016-17 (also 16).
Havertz punished some dreadful set-piece defending from Spurs to head in Declan Rice‘s delivery for Arsenal’s all-important third, and he has now been involved in 13 goals in his last 11 league games, scoring eight and assisting five. His first Premier League goal for the Gunners came from the penalty spot in a 4-0 win at Bournemouth in September.
The form of Havertz and company has helped to quieten talk of Arsenal needing a striker, and the Gunners’ finishing has been unrivalled in the last two seasons. Indeed, Arsenal have scored 85 goals from a total of 69.6 expected goals (xG) in the Premier League this campaign (an overperformance of 15.4), after netting 88 from 72.3 xG last term (+15.7).
Since the start of 2022-23, their positive differential of 31.1 is the largest of any side in Europe’s top five leagues, with Man City second (+25.1, 176 goals from 150.9 xG).
Saka has been instrumental on that front, his 15 Premier League goals being more than any of his teammates have managed this term. The winger also has nine assists in 2023-24 and recorded 14 goals and 11 assists last season. He could become only the second Arsenal player to register double figures for both goals and assists in consecutive Premier League campaigns, after Dennis Bergkamp in 1997-98 and 1998-99.
Arsenal could have a fully fit squad on Saturday, with Jurriën Timber in contention for just his second Premier League appearance after recovering from an anterior cruciate ligament injury. Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli and Jorginho are among Arteta’s options if he chooses to make changes to his lineup.
Bournemouth may not have stood out as the most difficult opponents awaiting Arsenal in the run-in, but Andoni Iraola’s side have been rivalling the Premier League’s best since earning their first win of the season at the 10th time of asking.
Starting with their 2-1 win over Burnley on 28 October, the Cherries have collected 45 points from their last 26 matches (13 wins, six draws, seven losses), with only the current top four earning more in that time. They have already bettered their record Premier League points tally, reaching 48 with last week’s 3-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion.
Justin Kluivert joined Marcos Senesi and Enes Ünal on the scoresheet in that match, and he has as many goal involvements in his last six Premier League outings (four – three goals, one assist) as he managed in his first 23 (four goals).
The only negative to emerge from that game was a serious-looking knee injury to Antoine Semenyo, who will join fellow widemen Luis Sinisterra and Marcus Tavernier on the sidelines. Milos Kerkez is still suspended following his red card against Wolves, but Tyler Adams is closing in on a return after an injury-plagued season.
Arsenal vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won all six of their previous home Premier League matches against Bournemouth. The Gunners have only played more home games in the competition while maintaining a 100% record against Stoke City, beating the Potters 10 times in 10 attempts.
Arteta’s side blew Bournemouth away in September’s return fixture at the Vitality Stadium, winning 4-0 with Ben White and Martin Ødegaard joining Saka and Havertz on the scoresheet.
Overall, the Cherries have only taken five points from 13 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (one win, two draws, 10 defeats), failing to keep a single clean sheet. They have only faced Man City more often in the competition without registering a single shutout (14 games).
Arsenal pulled off a memorable comeback when Bournemouth last visited the Emirates Stadium last March, with Reiss Nelson’s 97th-minute strike handing them a dramatic 3-2 win.
Bournemouth made a flying start on that occasion, with Phillip Billing opening the scoring after 9.11 seconds. That was the second-fastest goal in Premier League history, with Shane Long only needing 7.69 seconds to score for Southampton against Watford in April 2019.
Recent Form
Arsenal have won 13 of their 15 Premier League games since the turn of the year, only dropping points against City (0-0) and Aston Villa (2-0) in 2024.
However, the Gunners have conceded four goals in their last four league games, as many as in their previous 11 combined.
While Arteta’s team have looked a little more vulnerable at the back of late, they have scored a league-high 85 goals in 35 Premier League fixtures this season, with their average of 2.4 goals-per-game their highest in a single campaign since 1934-35, when they netted 115 times in 42 matches (2.7 per game).
On that occasion, Arsenal edged out Sunderland to win their fourth First Division title.
After winning 1-0 at Wolves and 3-0 against Brighton in their last two Premier League games, Bournemouth could make a piece of club history, having never previously won three straight top-flight matches without conceding.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups
Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is not forecasting any surprises in this one, with Arsenal winning 70.3% of 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off.
Bournemouth are assigned just a 10.3% chance of victory, with the likelihood of a draw standing at 19.4%.
The bad news for Arsenal is that the only team deemed to have a higher win probability on Matchday 36 is City, who are given a 71.1% chance of beating Wolves later on Saturday.
While Arsenal remain second favourites for the title, Bournemouth’s upturn sees them favoured for a top-half finish in our season predictions, making the top 10 in 60.8% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.