A potentially decisive north London derby awaits on Sunday. We look ahead to this Premier League clash with our Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer narrowly predicts a victory for Arsenal, who beat Tottenham in 40.5% of pre-match simulations.
- Arsenal won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, last winning consecutive away league games against Spurs between 1987 and 1988 (a run of three).
- Only five players have scored more goals in this fixture’s history in all competitions than Son Heung-min (7).
Match Preview
It is seemingly now a straight shoot-out between Arsenal and Manchester City at the top, but Tottenham will have the chance to dent their rivals’ Premier League title hopes when Mikel Arteta’s side visit them on Sunday.
Not since the 2003-04 ‘Invincibles’ season have Arsenal lifted the top-flight trophy, when they clinched the title with a 2-2 draw against neighbours Tottenham at their old White Hart Lane ground.
Sunday’s visitors are top of the table and one point clear of Man City, who have a game in hand after going a remarkable 30 games unbeaten across all competitions. City’s UEFA Champions League elimination on penalties to Real Madrid does not count as the match itself ended as a draw.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will play host to the next edition of this enticing north London derby, in which Ange Postecoglou will be desperate to boost Spurs’ top-four chances for a place in next season’s Champions League.
Tottenham have enjoyed a fine season of their own but stumbled in recent weeks. Their 4-0 thrashing at Newcastle United last time out left fifth-placed Spurs six points adrift of Aston Villa, albeit having played two games fewer.
Spurs have conceded 49 league goals this season and could concede 50+ in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since 2013-14 and 2014-15. Guglielmo Vicario may also become only the second goalkeeper to concede 50+ in his debut Premier League season with Spurs, after Neil Sullivan in 2000-01 (51).
At the other end, Son Heung-min has scored seven goals against Arsenal in all competitions, a mark only bettered by five players in the fixture’s history. The South Korea international netted twice in the reverse fixture this term but the only player to score multiple goals in both games between these sides in a league season was Arsenal’s Ted Drake in 1934-35.
Bukayo Saka was on target from the penalty spot when these two met in September, with Sunday his chance to become the first English player to score home and away for Arsenal against Spurs in a league campaign since Ian Wright in 1993-94.
Arsenal’s preparations for this derby could hardly have gone better, too, after smashing Chelsea 5-0 in their last outing. Kai Havertz found the net twice against his former club, while unlikely scorer Ben White added a double of his own after Leandro Trossard’s early opener.
Martin Ødegaard was at his creative best in that demolition of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium, and he has enjoyed his travels too. The Arsenal captain has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League away games, scoring three and assisting three.
Arteta should have no fresh injury concerns for Sunday’s kick-off as Jurriën Timber – who scored a remarkable goal on his Under-23s return – remains the only long-term absentee, though he might not be far off a return.
Postecoglou will again be without Oliver Skipp, Manor Solomon, Ryan Sessegnon and Fraser Forster. Destiny Udogie will be the biggest miss, though, as the left-back requires thigh surgery that will keep him out until next season.
Pedro Porro and Richarlison could at least return from thigh and knee issues respectively as Spurs aim to inflict a damaging blow to their rivals’ title chances and, in turn, boost their own Champions League hopes.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Up to the end of the 2015-16 season, Arsenal vs Tottenham was the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 20 of the 48 meetings between the sides ending level (42%). Since then, just four of the 15 matches between the two local rivals have finished in a draw (27%).
Arsenal won this exact fixture 2-0 last season after Hugo Lloris’ own goal and Ødegaard’s first-half strike. However, they have not triumphed in consecutive away league games against Spurs since a run of three between 1987 and 1988.
The two sides could not be separated in the meeting earlier this season, though, as Son hit twice at the Emirates, cancelling out Cristian Romero’s own goal and Saka’s penalty.
That draw leaves Tottenham with just one win in their last six Premier League games against Arsenal (D1 L4). Their four defeats in this run are as many as they’d suffered in their previous 16 against the Gunners (W6 D6).
Recent Form
Tottenham have scored in each of their last 25 Premier League home games, their third-longest such run in the competition after two streaks of 29 between January 2016 and August 2017, and April 2011 and October 2012.
Yet Spurs also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, their longest run without a home shutout since September 2003 (15).
Only Burnley and Sheffield United (1 each) have kept fewer clean sheets at home than Spurs this term (2), and Postecoglou may be looking in envy at Arteta’s defensive record.
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their last six Premier League away games, with only two teams ever doing so in seven (Chelsea from September-December 2008 and Manchester United from November-February in 2008-09).
However, the Gunners have never kept a clean sheet in consecutive league visits to Spurs before. This is their chance to do so after that aforementioned 2-0 win last term.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Tottenham vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has Arsenal as the slight favourites on Sunday, with the visitors beating their rivals in 40.5% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Postecoglou’s side boost their Champions League hopes with victory in 31.5% of data-led sims, while the draw was just lower at 28.0%.
After Thursday’s thrashing of Brighton, Manchester City increased their chances of winning the Premier League title to 71.7% in Opta’s end-of-season predictions. Arsenal still have a 26.6% chance, though.
As for Sunday’s hosts, Tottenham finish fifth most often in 78.4% of season simulations, with their top-four likelihood forecast at 19.0%.
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