Following their huge Merseyside derby win, can Sean Dyche’s Toffees make certain of Premier League survival? We look ahead to Saturday’s match at Goodison Park with our Everton vs Brentford prediction and preview.
Everton vs Brentford Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer struggles to split these teams ahead of Saturday’s game at Goodison Park, with Everton given a 32.4% chance of victory to Brentford’s 38.2%.
- Everton have won three of their last four Premier League games (one loss), having failed to win any of their previous 13 (six draws, seven defeats).
- Brentford have also won their last two Premier League matches, as many victories as they managed in their previous 18 (four draws, 12 defeats).
Match Preview
What a difference a week can make.
Everton entered last Sunday’s clash with Nottingham Forest knowing a defeat would leave them in the heart of the relegation battle, but Sean Dyche’s Toffees pulled clear with a 2-0 win, then bounded into Wednesday’s Merseyside derby to beat Liverpool by the same scoreline. Brentford have enjoyed a similar resurgence, and both sides have a chance to make their place in next season’s Premier League mathematically certain when they meet on Saturday.
Everton’s derby win over Liverpool – their first at Goodison Park since October 2010 – saw their chances of being relegated drop to a measly 0.07%, according to the Opta supercomputer. Goals from Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin also had the added bonus of reducing their neighbours’ title hopes from 13.2% to just 2.7%.
The Toffees didn’t enjoy much of the ball, with goalkeeper Jordan Pickford playing more than twice as many passes into the final third (22) than any of his team-mates, but a solid defensive effort was the foundation for a trademark Dyche performance.
Indeed, Everton scored once from a free-kick and once from a corner, taking their overall set-piece goal tally (excluding penalties) for this Premier League campaign to 17, a tally only bettered by Arsenal (20).
After the trials and tribulations of a season in which they have lost eight points to separate deductions and seen a long-awaited takeover by 777 Partners stall, Everton are just one step from survival. Depending on how Luton Town and Nottingham Forest fare against Wolves and Manchester City this weekend, Everton could make certain of their top-flight place with a win.
Calvert-Lewin’s return to form has come at the ideal time for Saturday’s hosts, with the striker scoring three goals in his last four Premier League appearances, as many as he managed in his previous 28.
Fellow striker Beto is still out after suffering a head injury against Forest, though Dyche issued a positive update on his condition after that match. Seamus Coleman could be available after missing two games with a groin issue, but Ben Godfrey may retain his place at right-back after replacing Ashley Young in midweek.
Like Everton, Brentford look to have done enough to remain among England’s elite for another year, and another win at Goodison would make certain of their survival regardless of results elsewhere after a difficult campaign.
Thomas Frank’s team have won their last two Premier League games, beating Sheffield United 2-0 and Luton 5-1, after only winning two of their previous 18 (four draws, 12 losses). They last won three in a row between October and November.
The Bees swarmed Luton on their last outing, shrugging off Ivan Toney’s injury-enforced absence to put the Hatters to the sword at Kenilworth Road. Yoane Wissa netted twice, with Ethan Pinnock, Keane Lewis-Potter and Kevin Schade joining him on the scoresheet in Brentford’s biggest ever top-flight away win.
Wissa now has five goals in his last five away Premier League games, as many as he managed in his previous 29 such appearances.
His first goal against Luton – a fine strike from near the right corner of the box – was assisted by Bryan Mbeumo. Brentford’s upturn has coincided with Mbeumo’s return after three months out with an ankle injury, and he has nine goal involvements in his last 10 Premier League starts (four goals, five assists). Brentford have won 39% of their Premier League games with Mbeumo starting this season (seven of 18), compared to 12.5% without him (two of 16).
Frank is hopeful of recovering Toney for Saturday’s game after having a full week off between matches, but Neal Maupay is ineligible to face his parent club and the likes of Ben Mee, Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey are out for the rest of the season.
Everton vs Brentford Head-to-Head
Everton won September’s reverse fixture at the Gtech Community Stadium by a 3-1 scoreline, with Abdoulaye Doucouré and James Tarkowski on target alongside Calvert-Lewin.
That was the Toffees’ first league win of 2023-24, and they now have the chance to complete just their second ever league double over Brentford, previously doing so in the second tier in 1952-53.
Brentford were also beaten 1-0 in this exact fixture last March. Having gone unbeaten through their first three Premier League meetings with Everton (two wins, one draw), Brentford have now lost their last two.
Dwight McNeil only needed 35 seconds to open the scoring when Brentford last visited Goodison, and Everton have now scored first in each of their last four league meetings with Brentford, doing so within the first 10 minutes on three occasions during that run.
Neutrals shouldn’t expect to see the points shared if past results between the teams are anything to go by. None of the previous 10 league games between Everton and Brentford at Goodison have finished level, with the Toffees winning seven and losing three.
Recent Form
Everton have won three of their last four Premier League matches (one defeat), with those victories over Burnley, Forest and Liverpool all coming on home soil. Before beating the Clarets, Dyche’s team were winless in 13 Premier League games (six draws, seven defeats).
They will have to be wary of a newly prolific Brentford attack, with the Bees scoring eight goals in their last two Premier League away games (5-1 versus Luton, 3-3 at Aston Villa).
They are looking to score three or more goals in three successive away league games for the first time since doing so as a Championship club in November 2019.
However, Brentford have lost five of their last six Premier League games to kick off at 5:30pm on a Saturday, the exception being January’s 3-2 win over Forest.
Everton, meanwhile, have won all three of their Premier League matches in this time slot this campaign. All of those victories came on the road, though, and the Toffees have lost their last four home league games played at 5:30pm on a Saturday.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Everton vs Brentford Predicted Lineups
Everton vs Brentford Prediction
According to the Opta supercomputer, this match is the most difficult one to call across the Premier League this weekend.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Everton won 32.4%, with Brentford triumphing in 38.2% and the remaining 29.4% finishing level. The Bees are assigned a lower win probability than any other favourite ahead of Matchday 35.
Their relegation fears now surely behind them, Everton and Brentford are expected to finish close to one another in the final table.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, Brentford finish in their current position of 15th in a league-high 46.2% of scenarios, with Everton remaining 16th in 64.9% of season simulations.
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