The top three clubs in the table are separated by just a single point, and all three play on Sunday afternoon. How will the results in both matches impact the Premier League title race?
The Premier League title race is about to get even more interesting.
Liverpool host Brighton and Hove Albion on Sunday afternoon knowing that a point will take them top of the Premier League table – for a few hours. If they were to win, it would take an Arsenal victory at Manchester City later that day to knock them off top spot as we head into April.
Looking ahead to Sunday’s huge double-header, we’ve used the numbers from the Opta supercomputer to see how all three sides’ Premier League title chances could change based on their respective results at Anfield and the Etihad Stadium.
If Liverpool Beat Brighton
The Opta supercomputer is expecting Liverpool to pick up all three points on Sunday against Brighton, winning 60.7% of the pre-match simulations. After all, Jürgen Klopp’s side are now unbeaten in 26 Premier League games at Anfield, winning 20 of those.
Based on their form over the last few months, Brighton are unlikely to get all three points here. Their 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest in their last game gives them a positive outlook heading into this match, but Roberto De Zerbi’s side haven’t won consecutive Premier League matches since September.
That said, Brighton are unbeaten in their last three away games at Anfield in the Premier League, and Liverpool have won just one of their last seven league meetings with the Seagulls (D4 L2).
Brighton had a say in the Premier League title race last season, as they beat Arsenal 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium in May to kill off their hopes of a first league crown since 2004.
Should Liverpool win at Anfield, an Arsenal defeat against Manchester City would have dire consequences for the Gunners’ title challenge. The Opta supercomputer would give them just a 9% chance of winning the Premier League title if this set of results occurs, with Mikel Arteta’s side falling three points behind Liverpool and two behind Man City with nine games remaining.
A Liverpool win followed by a draw between Arsenal and Man City would swing the title race in Liverpool’s favour, overtaking City as favourites. A Liverpool win coupled with an Arsenal victory would give Pep Guardiola’s side just a one-in-five chance of sealing a historic fourth consecutive English top-flight title.
If Liverpool Draw with Brighton
With two of the last three league meetings between Liverpool and Brighton at Anfield ending in a draw – the other was a Brighton win – there’s a chance that history could be repeated on Sunday.
A Liverpool draw coupled with a Manchester City victory over Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium later that afternoon would see City lead the Premier League table by a single point with nine games left to play. Their projected chance of winning another title would shoot up to 65%.
A draw in both fixtures would benefit Arsenal the most, as they’d move up to 25% for the title from 21%. As the Opta supercomputer predicts a Man City win is the most likely result in Sunday’s clash, anything other than that would see a swing in Arsenal’s favour.
Arsenal haven’t been favourites for the Premier League title with the Opta supercomputer at all this season. However, a win for them at the Etihad following a draw for Liverpool against Brighton would see Arsenal become favourites for the title (45%), having moved two points clear of the Reds and four clear of reigning champions City.
If Liverpool Lose to Brighton
Defeats for both Liverpool and Arsenal would see Manchester City move two points clear of both clubs at the top of the Premier League table. Their projected chance of another title win would move up to 70% from 44% coming into the Easter weekend.
City will be confident of getting all three points against the Gunners, having won 12 of their last 13 Premier League games against Arsenal. However, the exception was a 1-0 loss at the Emirates in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
The odds are stacked against an Arsenal win, with City unbeaten in their last 38 home games in all competitions (W33 D5) since a 2-1 loss to Brentford in November 2022. It’s their second-longest run without defeat at home in their history, after a run of 42 between December 1919 and November 1921.
But this Arsenal team are built different. They have won their last eight Premier League games, scoring 33 goals and conceding just four, so a victory here shouldn’t be ruled out. If they win on Sunday, it’ll be their first league double over Man City since 2007-08, and their first wins home and away against the reigning Premier League champions in a single season since 2001-02 (Manchester United).
A Liverpool defeat against Brighton coupled with an Arsenal win at Man City would see Arteta’s side become favourites for the Premier League title, winning the league in 49% of the supercomputer’s simlations.
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